| # | Metro | Risk score (0–100) | Rating | Top hazard | Expected annual loss | Median list price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lynchburg, VA | 40.1 | Relatively Low | Inland flooding | $51.2M | $349,923 |
| 2 | Roanoke, VA | 50.1 | Relatively Low | Inland flooding | $76.2M | $374,975 |
| 3 | Kingsport, TN | 58.6 | Relatively Low | Inland flooding | $65.9M | $339,450 |
| 4 | Virginia Beach, VA | 61.5 | Relatively Low | Inland flooding | $335.1M | $429,950 |
| 5 | Columbus, GA | 63.7 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $70.3M | $280,525 |
| 6 | Richmond, VA | 65.9 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $282.1M | $439,925 |
| 7 | Hagerstown, MD | 66.3 | Relatively Low | Inland flooding | $69.8M | $359,973 |
| 8 | Hickory, NC | 71.7 | Relatively Low | Inland flooding | $103.8M | $350,000 |
| 9 | Huntington, WV | 72.7 | Relatively Low | Inland flooding | $214.5M | $212,450 |
| 10 | Lexington, KY | 74.1 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $188.9M | $399,000 |
| 11 | Bend, OR | 74.3 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $86.2M | $699,900 |
| 12 | Portland, ME | 75.1 | Relatively Low | Inland flooding | $134.5M | $625,000 |
| 13 | Augusta, GA | 75.8 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $181.0M | $314,900 |
| 14 | Longview, TX | 75.9 | Relatively Low | Tornado | $119.7M | $296,500 |
| 15 | Lansing, MI | 76.0 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $126.7M | $249,000 |
| 16 | Cedar Rapids, IA | 77.3 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $110.9M | $320,875 |
| 17 | Albany, NY | 77.8 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $211.7M | $419,975 |
| 18 | Springfield, MO | 77.8 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $176.0M | $347,268 |
| 19 | Davenport, IA | 77.9 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $143.2M | $239,900 |
| 20 | Sioux Falls, SD | 77.9 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $184.1M | $362,200 |
| 21 | Knoxville, TN | 78.2 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $271.9M | $447,000 |
| 22 | Des Moines, IA | 78.6 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $236.3M | $339,996 |
| 23 | Peoria, IL | 79.8 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $179.8M | $179,300 |
| 24 | South Bend, IN | 79.8 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $73.9M | $322,400 |
| 25 | Fargo, ND | 80.1 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $123.8M | $379,900 |
Housing market ranking · FEMA NRI December 2025, v1.20
Which U.S. metros are safest from natural disasters?
Lynchburg, VA has the lowest natural-hazard risk score of any U.S. metro with 250,000 or more residents, 40.1 out of 100, in WealthyBud scores built from FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025, v1.20). Roanoke, VA (50.1) and Kingsport, TN (58.6) follow. Among metros with 1,000,000+ residents, Virginia Beach, VA is lowest at 61.5. The median across all 193 metros with 250,000+ residents is 89.6.
What does the natural-hazard risk score measure?
FEMA's National Risk Index scores every U.S. county from 0 to 100 as a national percentile of expected annual loss from 18 natural hazards, adjusted for social vulnerability and community resilience. WealthyBud averages county scores by population for each metro. FEMA does not publish metro scores.
FEMA’s National Risk Index covers avalanche, coastal flooding, cold wave, drought, earthquake, hail, heat wave, hurricane, ice storm, landslide, lightning, inland flooding, strong wind, tornado, tsunami, volcanic activity, wildfire and winter weather. The median metro score on this list is 73.3. 551 of 923 metros rate Very Low or Relatively Low.
Which metros are safest from natural disasters?
Among 193 metros with at least 250,000 residents, Lynchburg, VA scores lowest at 40.1, then Roanoke, VA at 50.1 and Kingsport, TN at 58.6. A low score means lower expected losses relative to other places, not zero risk from storms or floods.
The lowest score of any metro in the file, regardless of size, is Ketchikan, AK at 1.7 (13,870 residents).
Which large metros have the lowest disaster risk?
Among 55 metros with at least 1,000,000 residents, Virginia Beach, VA has the lowest score at 61.5, followed by Richmond, VA at 65.9. Los Angeles, CA is the highest of the large metros at 100.0 out of 100, so size alone does not predict risk; geography and hazard mix do.
| # | Metro | Risk score (0–100) | Rating | Top hazard | Expected annual loss | Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia Beach, VA | 61.5 | Relatively Low | Inland flooding | $335.1M | 1,782,590 |
| 2 | Richmond, VA | 65.9 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $282.1M | 1,327,321 |
| 3 | Rochester, NY | 82.3 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $212.1M | 1,058,875 |
| 4 | Providence, RI | 82.4 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $304.0M | 1,673,807 |
| 5 | Cincinnati, OH | 82.9 | Relatively Low | Inland flooding | $650.7M | 2,255,257 |
| 6 | Washington, DC | 82.9 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $1.20B | 6,263,796 |
| 7 | Louisville, KY | 83.0 | Relatively High | Inland flooding | $609.0M | 1,361,847 |
| 8 | Grand Rapids, MI | 83.1 | Relatively Moderate | Inland flooding | $271.2M | 1,154,320 |
| 9 | Atlanta, GA | 83.5 | Relatively High | Inland flooding | $1.46B | 6,176,937 |
| 10 | Indianapolis, IN | 83.9 | Relatively High | Inland flooding | $667.3M | 2,106,327 |
The five highest-scoring metros with 1,000,000+ residents:
- Los Angeles, CA scores 100.0, rated Very High, with earthquake as its top expected-loss hazard.
- Riverside, CA scores 99.9, rated Very High, with inland flooding as its top expected-loss hazard.
- San Diego, CA scores 99.7, rated Very High, with inland flooding as its top expected-loss hazard.
- Las Vegas, NV scores 99.6, rated Very High, with inland flooding as its top expected-loss hazard.
- Miami, FL scores 99.5, rated Relatively High, with hurricane as its top expected-loss hazard.
Which metros face the highest natural disaster risk?
Los Angeles, CA has the highest score among metros with 250,000 or more residents at 100.0, with earthquake as its largest expected-loss hazard. 113 of 923 metros carry a Relatively High or Very High WealthyBud metro rating. California (12) and Florida (5) hold 17 of the 25 highest-risk spots.
| # | Metro | Risk score (0–100) | Rating | Top hazard | Expected annual loss | Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles, CA | 100.0 | Very High | Earthquake | $9.53B | 13,012,469 |
| 2 | Riverside, CA | 99.9 | Very High | Inland flooding | $4.34B | 4,637,725 |
| 3 | San Diego, CA | 99.7 | Very High | Inland flooding | $1.54B | 3,282,782 |
| 4 | Las Vegas, NV | 99.6 | Very High | Inland flooding | $812.6M | 2,293,764 |
| 5 | Miami, FL | 99.5 | Relatively High | Hurricane | $1.99B | 6,138,876 |
| 6 | Oxnard, CA | 99.4 | Relatively High | Earthquake | $762.2M | 838,259 |
| 7 | San Francisco, CA | 99.4 | Very High | Earthquake | $4.71B | 4,653,593 |
| 8 | Phoenix, AZ | 99.3 | Very High | Inland flooding | $2.33B | 4,941,206 |
| 9 | San Jose, CA | 99.3 | Very High | Earthquake | $2.05B | 1,969,353 |
| 10 | Santa Rosa, CA | 99.1 | Relatively High | Earthquake | $604.7M | 485,642 |
| 11 | Tucson, AZ | 99.1 | Relatively High | Inland flooding | $531.4M | 1,049,947 |
| 12 | Cape Coral, FL | 99.0 | Relatively High | Hurricane | $433.3M | 792,692 |
| 13 | McAllen, TX | 99.0 | Relatively High | Hurricane | $309.8M | 880,921 |
| 14 | Santa Barbara, CA | 99.0 | Relatively High | Earthquake | $477.3M | 443,975 |
| 15 | Seattle, WA | 99.0 | Very High | Earthquake | $2.62B | 4,021,467 |
| 16 | Bakersfield, CA | 98.9 | Relatively High | Earthquake | $417.0M | 910,433 |
| 17 | Fresno, CA | 98.9 | Relatively High | Drought | $718.9M | 1,170,942 |
| 18 | Naples, FL | 98.9 | Relatively High | Hurricane | $398.2M | 387,681 |
| 19 | Honolulu, HI | 98.8 | Relatively High | Inland flooding | $517.3M | 1,003,666 |
| 20 | Salinas, CA | 98.7 | Relatively High | Earthquake | $402.4M | 435,834 |
| 21 | Stockton, CA | 98.6 | Relatively High | Earthquake | $421.9M | 787,416 |
| 22 | Palm Bay, FL | 98.4 | Relatively High | Hurricane | $389.3M | 620,533 |
| 23 | Myrtle Beach, SC | 98.2 | Relatively High | Hurricane | $290.4M | 368,937 |
| 24 | Mobile, AL | 98.0 | Relatively High | Hurricane | $298.2M | 413,162 |
| 25 | Sarasota, FL | 97.9 | Relatively High | Hurricane | $527.7M | 865,031 |
| Rating | Metros | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Very Low | 85 | 9.2% |
| Relatively Low | 466 | 50.5% |
| Relatively Moderate | 259 | 28.1% |
| Relatively High | 103 | 11.2% |
| Very High | 10 | 1.1% |
Which hazards drive the most expected losses?
Inland flooding is the largest expected-loss hazard in 710 of 923 metros (77%), by summed FEMA expected annual loss. Hurricanes lead in 72 metros and earthquakes in 59. The top hazard is the biggest dollar loss, not the most frequent event.
| Top hazard | Metros | Share of metros |
|---|---|---|
| Inland flooding | 710 | 76.9% |
| Hurricane | 72 | 7.8% |
| Earthquake | 59 | 6.4% |
| Cold wave | 30 | 3.3% |
| Tornado | 15 | 1.6% |
| Drought | 11 | 1.2% |
For hazard-by-hazard national context, see natural disaster risk statistics. To weigh risk against price, compare with the cheapest places to buy a house and the best places to invest in real estate.
How is the natural disaster risk ranking calculated?
Universe: 923 metro (CBSA) rows with an NRI score and Census population in markets.json, one row per CBSA code. Scores are population-weighted means of FEMA county RISK_SCORE values; ratings follow the population-weighted majority county rating. Sorted ascending for safest, descending for riskiest.
- Pull FEMA NRI county RISK_SCORE, RISK_RATNG, population and 18 hazard expected-annual-loss totals.
- Map counties to Census metro areas (CBSAs, 2023 delineation).
- Average county scores by county population to get each metro score.
- Name the hazard with the largest summed expected annual loss as the top hazard.
- Sort ascending for the safest list and descending for the riskiest list.
Expected annual loss is FEMA’s modeled dollar figure, not an insurance premium or a claims total. Median list prices are Realtor.com, September 2026.
Frequently asked questions
What is the safest place to live from natural disasters in the U.S.?
Among metros with 250,000+ residents, Lynchburg, VA has the lowest WealthyBud score from FEMA's National Risk Index at 40.1. Among 1,000,000+ metros it is Virginia Beach, VA at 61.5. Every metro still faces some hazard, so check flood maps for a specific address.
Which large U.S. metro has the highest natural disaster risk?
Los Angeles, CA scores 100.0 out of 100, the highest of 55 metros with 1,000,000 or more residents. Its largest expected-loss hazard is earthquake. Riverside, CA follows at 99.9 See the tables and sources on this page See the tables and sources on this page.
What does the FEMA National Risk Index measure?
It estimates expected annual loss to buildings, population and agriculture from 18 natural hazards, then adjusts for social vulnerability and community resilience. County scores are national percentiles from 0 to 100, so a score of 80 is higher than 80% of counties.
Why is flooding the top hazard in most metros?
Inland flooding produces the largest summed expected annual loss in 710 of 923 metros on this list. Flooding affects many inland areas every year, while hurricanes and earthquakes concentrate losses in coastal and western metros. The measure is dollars of expected loss.
Does a low risk score mean cheaper home insurance?
Not necessarily. Insurers price policies with their own models, claims history, rebuild costs and state rules. A low NRI-based score suggests lower expected hazard losses than other places, but premiums can still rise. Get quotes before you buy or underwrite a rental.
How is this natural disaster risk ranking built?
WealthyBud takes FEMA NRI county scores (December 2025, v1.20), maps counties to Census metro areas, and averages scores by county population. One row per metro; 923 metros qualify. Ratings use the population-weighted majority county rating. Nothing is imputed See the tables and sources on this page.
Key takeaways
- Lynchburg, VA is the lowest-risk metro with 250,000+ residents, at 40.1 out of 100.
- Virginia Beach, VA is the lowest-risk metro with 1,000,000+ residents, at 61.5.
- Los Angeles, CA is the highest-risk 250,000+ metro, at 100.0.
- 113 of 923 metros rate Relatively High or Very High.
- Inland flooding is the top expected-loss hazard in 710 of 923 metros.
For education only, not insurance, legal or investment advice. Check FEMA flood maps and insurer quotes for a specific property.