Statistics · 2026 · Real Estate
Natural Disaster Risk Statistics (2026)
Los Angeles, CA has the highest natural-hazard risk score of any large U.S. metro, 100.0 out of 100, in WealthyBud’s metro scores built from FEMA’s National Risk Index (December 2025, v1.20). Across 396 metros with 100,000 or more residents, the median score is 84.5, and 113 of 923 metros carry a High or Very High WealthyBud metro rating, which WealthyBud derives from FEMA county ratings. These metro scores are population-weighted averages of FEMA county scores, not scores FEMA publishes for metros.
Key takeaways
- Los Angeles, CA scores 100.0, the highest among the 396 metros with 100,000 or more residents.
- FEMA’s modeled expected annual loss, summed over the 923 metros, is $136.7 billion a year, 88.9% of the $153.8 billion in FEMA’s county file.
- 113 of 923 metros (12%) have a Relatively High or Very High WealthyBud metro rating, derived from FEMA county ratings; 10 are Very High.
- Very High metros have a median list price of $667,477 against $297,407 for Relatively Low metros; this is an association, and metro size confounds the comparison.
Which U.S. metros face the highest natural-disaster risk?
Los Angeles, CA ranks first at 100.0, followed by Riverside, CA at 99.9 and San Diego, CA at 99.7. The ranking covers 396 metros with at least 100,000 residents. Each score is a population-weighted average of FEMA county scores, so near-equal scores are effectively tied.
1. Los Angeles, CA leads at 100.0, rated Very High
Its largest-dollar hazard is earthquake, with expected annual loss of $9.5 billion a year. Riverside, CA and San Diego, CA follow (WealthyBud data · 396 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
2. California holds 7 of the 11 metros in the top-ten table
They span 4 states (a tie for 10th adds one). Their median population is 3,282,782, against 240,800 for all 396 ranked metros (WealthyBud data · 396 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
3. FEMA’s county score is a percentile rank among U.S. counties
The National Risk Index FAQ says a score is “the community’s percentile ranking among all other communities of the same enumeration unit” (county or Census tract). WealthyBud averages county scores for each metro, weighting by county population, so a metro score is not a percentile of metros. 123 of the 396 ranked metros score 90 or higher.
| Metro | Risk score (0–100) | WealthyBud metro rating | Largest-dollar hazard | Expected annual loss per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Los Angeles, CA | 100.0 | Very High | Earthquake | $9.5 billion |
| 2. Riverside, CA | 99.9 | Very High | Inland flooding | $4.3 billion |
| 3. San Diego, CA | 99.7 | Very High | Inland flooding | $1.5 billion |
| 4. Las Vegas, NV | 99.6 | Very High | Inland flooding | $813 million |
| 5. Miami, FL | 99.5 | Relatively High | Hurricane | $2.0 billion |
| 6=. Oxnard, CA | 99.4 | Relatively High | Earthquake | $762 million |
| 6=. San Francisco, CA | 99.4 | Very High | Earthquake | $4.7 billion |
| 8=. Phoenix, AZ | 99.3 | Very High | Inland flooding | $2.3 billion |
| 8=. San Jose, CA | 99.3 | Very High | Earthquake | $2.0 billion |
| 10=. Santa Rosa, CA | 99.1 | Relatively High | Earthquake | $605 million |
| 10=. Tucson, AZ | 99.1 | Relatively High | Inland flooding | $531 million |
Which hazards drive the most risk?
Inland flooding is the largest-dollar hazard in 710 of 923 metros, and it makes up 43.7% of summed metro expected annual loss. Earthquake follows at 18.2%. A hazard's rank here reflects dollars of expected loss, not how often it strikes.
4. Inland flooding is the top hazard in 710 of 923 metros (77%)
A metro’s top hazard has the largest summed expected annual loss across its counties; 14 hazards top at least one metro (WealthyBud data · 923 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025). FEMA calls this hazard inland flooding; WealthyBud’s metro pages label it riverine flooding.
5. Inland flooding is 43.7% of metro expected annual loss; earthquake is 18.2%
Base: summed expected annual loss of the 1,842 counties inside the 923 metros, all 18 hazards, $136.7 billion a year. WealthyBud’s sum of FEMA county values (WealthyBud data · 923 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
6. FEMA scores 18 natural hazards
The National Risk Index FAQ (December 2025 v1.20) covers 18 hazards, from avalanche to winter weather. A hazard was included if “profiled by at least 25 states” in their hazard mitigation plans, or if regionally significant.
| Hazard | Metros where it is largest (of 923) | Of the 396 ranked metros | Share of summed expected annual loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland flooding | 710 | 307 | 43.7% |
| Hurricane | 72 | 44 | 8.5% |
| Earthquake | 59 | 32 | 18.2% |
| Cold wave | 30 | 4 | 6.0% |
| Tornado | 15 | 3 | 7.6% |
| Drought | 11 | 4 | 1.3% |
See hazard risk across every metro
How much do natural hazards cost each year?
FEMA’s modeled expected annual loss, summed over 923 metros, is $136.7 billion a year. That is WealthyBud’s sum of county values, not a figure FEMA publishes for metros. Los Angeles, CA alone accounts for $9.5 billion. Large metros top the list.
7. Summed metro expected annual loss: $136.7 billion a year
This adds 1,842 counties inside the 923 metros. FEMA’s county file has 3,232 records and $153.8 billion in all, including Puerto Rico, territories and counties outside any metro, so the metros hold 88.9%. A metro published under two slugs counts once; this is not a national total (WealthyBud data · 923 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
8. Ten metros hold 30% of summed expected annual loss; the top three hold 14%
The ten are led by Los Angeles, CA ($9.5 billion), San Francisco, CA ($4.7 billion) and New York, NY ($4.6 billion). (WealthyBud data · 923 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
9. Median expected annual loss is $380 per resident per year; the highest is $1,792
WealthyBud’s estimate divides FEMA expected annual loss by 2023 ACS population; the vintages differ. The highest are Hilo, HI ($1,792), Eureka, CA ($1,393) and Napa, CA ($1,367) (WealthyBud data · 396 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
10. FEMA defines expected annual loss as an average, in dollars
The NRI methodology says: “Expected Annual Loss (EAL) represents the average economic loss in dollars resulting from natural hazards each year.” It covers buildings, people and agriculture, and values each fatality or ten injuries at $13.7 million. These are modeled averages, not losses recorded in one year.
11. 45 major disaster declarations were dated 2025, down from 100 in 2024
WealthyBud’s count of distinct declaration numbers in OpenFEMA, queried October 2, 2026, by declaration date. 2025 also had 7 emergency and 67 fire management declarations, against 20 and 62 in 2024. Declarations count events, not dollars.
How many metros rate high or very high risk?
113 of 923 metros (12%) rate Relatively High or Very High: 10 Very High and 103 Relatively High. FEMA assigns ratings to counties. WealthyBud gives each metro the county rating that covers the largest share of its population, so metro ratings are WealthyBud's derivation.
12. 113 metros rate High or Very High; 10 rate Very High
Of the 396 large metros, 109 (28%) are High or Very High. 17 resort records without scores are excluded (WealthyBud data · 923 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
13. Rating and score can disagree: 21 Relatively High metros score above the lowest Very High metro
The lowest Very High metro scores 97.1, while Miami, FL is rated Relatively High at 99.5. A metro takes one county rating while its score averages every county, so the two can diverge (WealthyBud data · 923 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
| WealthyBud metro rating | Metros (of 923) | Share of metros | Of the 396 ranked metros |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very High | 10 | 1.1% | 10 |
| Relatively High | 103 | 11.2% | 99 |
| Relatively Moderate | 259 | 28.1% | 186 |
| Relatively Low | 466 | 50.5% | 100 |
| Very Low | 85 | 9.2% | 1 |
Are high-risk metros cheaper to buy in?
No. Very High metros have a median list price of $667,477, above the $297,407 median for Relatively Low metros. This is an association, not a cause: the 10 Very High metros are large, and the data cannot say how risk affects prices.
14. Metro size tracks risk score: correlation 0.65 with log population
Larger metros score higher (Pearson r 0.65 between score and log10 of ACS population). Median population is 4,645,659 in Very High metros against 76,748 across all 923, so size confounds any price comparison (WealthyBud data · 923 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
15. Median gross yield runs 4.21% to 4.57% across the Relatively Low, Moderate and High groups
Gross yield is a WealthyBud estimate: HUD two-bedroom fair market rent times 12, divided by the Realtor.com median list price. The Very High group is 4.27% (n=10). 536 of 923 metros have no yield and are left out of those medians (Very Low has n=2) (WealthyBud data · 387 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
| WealthyBud metro rating | Metros | Median metro population | Median list price | Median gross yield (WealthyBud estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very Low | 85 | 29,268 | $297,750 | 4.07% (n=2) |
| Relatively Low | 466 | 53,243 | $297,407 | 4.21% (n=96) |
| Relatively Moderate | 259 | 168,850 | $337,000 | 4.40% (n=182) |
| Relatively High | 103 | 620,533 | $399,950 | 4.57% (n=97) |
| Very High | 10 | 4,645,659 | $667,477 | 4.27% (n=10) |
Which metros face the least risk?
Lexington Park, MD has the lowest score among the 396 metros with 100,000 or more residents, 36.4, followed by Blacksburg, VA at 36.9 and Winchester, VA at 38.1. These are WealthyBud's population-weighted averages of FEMA county scores, and the lowest-scoring metros tend to be smaller than the typical ranked metro.
16. Lexington Park, MD is lowest at 36.4
The ten lowest-scoring large metros have a median population of 163,140, against 240,800 for all 396 (WealthyBud data · 396 metros · FEMA NRI Dec. 2025).
- Lexington Park, MD scores 36.4 and is rated Very Low, with expected annual loss of $38 million.
- Blacksburg, VA scores 36.9 and is rated Relatively Low, with expected annual loss of $40 million.
- Winchester, VA scores 38.1 and is rated Relatively Low, with expected annual loss of $36 million.
- Lynchburg, VA scores 40.1 and is rated Relatively Low, with expected annual loss of $51 million.
- Twin Falls, ID scores 41.5 and is rated Relatively Low, with expected annual loss of $22 million.
What this means for buyers and investors
For buyers, a high score is a prompt to check flood, wind and fire exposure at the specific address. FEMA’s scores describe counties, not parcels.
For investors, expected annual loss is a long-run average. Property taxes and insurance reduce net income, and gross yield here ignores both.
For movers and landlords, pair hazard exposure with demand: migration statistics and homeownership statistics show who is arriving and who owns. See the methodology for scoring.
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