Statistics · 2026 · Stocks
Stock Market Volatility Statistics (2026)
The VIX closed at 16.39 on October 1, 2026, below its 1990–2026 median of 17.57. Cboe defines the index as the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility, built from S&P 500 option prices. The highest close was 82.69 on March 16, 2020. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 index moved more than 1% on 24.2% of trading days. All VIX figures are daily closes, not intraday highs.
Key takeaways
- The VIX closed at 16.39 on October 1, 2026, below the 17.57 median of 9,286 closes since January 2, 1990.
- The VIX closed above 30 on 7.9% of days and below 15 on 32.0%.
- The highest close was 82.69 on March 16, 2020; the lowest was 9.14 on November 3, 2017.
- From October 3, 2016, the S&P 500 index moved more than 1% in a day on 24.2% of 2,512 trading days and more than 3% on 2.07%.
- Average VIX was 24.9 in the 7 calendar years with a negative total return and 18.1 in the 29 years with a positive one (1990–2025).
What is the VIX today?
The VIX closed at 16.39 on October 1, 2026, the latest close in this dataset. That is below the 17.57 median since 1990 and below the 19.42 mean. 42.1% of daily closes were at or below it. The VIX is a 30-day forecast built from option prices, not a measure of past moves.
1. Cboe defines the VIX as expected 30-day volatility from S&P 500 options
The Cboe Volatility Index “is designed to measure the market’s expectation of 30-day forward looking volatility of the U.S. equity market, as conveyed by S&P 500 Index option prices” (Cboe VIX methodology, section 1.1).
2. The latest VIX close is 16.39; 42.1% of closes since 1990 were at or below it
The share is closes at or below 16.39. The same document says the index is “often referred to as the ‘fear gauge’” (Cboe’s wording, not WealthyBud’s) (WealthyBud data · 9,286 VIX closes · October 1, 2026).
3. 2026 has averaged 18.22 so far (194 closes, January 2, 2026 to October 1, 2026)
The year’s high close is 31.05 on March 27, 2026 and its low is 14.21 on September 22, 2026. The year is partial, so it is left out of the year rankings below (WealthyBud data · 9,286 VIX closes · October 1, 2026).
What is a normal VIX level?
The median VIX close since 1990 is 17.57 and the mean is 19.42, across 9,286 daily closes. It closed below 15 on 32.0% of days, above 20 on 36.9% and above 30 on 7.9%. The mean sits above the median because brief spikes pull it up.
4. The VIX closed above 30 on 735 days (7.9%) and above 40 on 207 (2.2%)
Above 50 it closed on 75 days, all in 2008, 2009, 2020 and 2025 (WealthyBud data · 9,286 VIX closes · October 1, 2026).
5. The VIX closed below 15 on 32.0% of days
The lowest close was 9.14 on November 3, 2017. FRED's file also lists 302 dates with no value (blank or ‘.’), which are excluded. The longest gap between closes, 7 days, spans September 10, 2001 to September 17, 2001 (WealthyBud data · 9,286 VIX closes · October 1, 2026).
When did the VIX hit record highs?
The highest daily close since 1990 is 82.69, on March 16, 2020. The five highest distinct spikes, at least 30 days apart, closed between 52.65 and 82.69 and fall in 2008, 2009 and 2020. These are daily closing values, not intraday highs, which can run higher.
6. The record VIX close is 82.69 on March 16, 2020
The record low close is 9.14. Spikes are ranked by closing value; a spike counts as distinct only if it sits at least 30 days from every higher one already listed (WealthyBud data · 9,286 VIX closes · October 1, 2026).
- Spike 1: the VIX closed at 82.69 on March 16, 2020.
- Spike 2: the VIX closed at 80.86 on November 20, 2008.
- Spike 3: the VIX closed at 70.33 on October 17, 2008.
- Spike 4: the VIX closed at 56.65 on January 20, 2009.
- Spike 5: the VIX closed at 52.65 on March 2, 2009.
7. The highest close after 2020 is 52.33 on April 8, 2025
It ranks sixth among distinct spikes. This page names no events behind these dates because no cited source here dates them (WealthyBud data · 9,286 VIX closes · October 1, 2026).
See how 103 large-cap stocks stack up
How often does the S&P 500 move more than 1% in a day?
The S&P 500 index moved more than 1% in either direction on 609 of 2,512 trading days (24.2%), from October 3, 2016 to October 1, 2026. It moved more than 2% on 6.0% of days and more than 3% on 2.07%. These are price changes, which exclude dividends.
FRED’s SP500 series holds only about the last 10 years: its first close is October 3, 2016. It is a price index. Each change is the move from one published close to the next.
8. A move of more than 1% happened on 24.2% of days: 275 down days and 334 up days
The index fell by more than 1% on 275 days and rose by more than 1% on 334 (WealthyBud data · 2,512 S&P 500 price changes · October 1, 2026).
9. Moves above 2% happened on 151 days (6.0%); above 3%, on 52 (2.07%)
The largest absolute move was 12.0% on March 16, 2020. Realized volatility over the whole window, the standard deviation of daily log returns times √252, is 18.1% (WealthyBud data · 2,512 S&P 500 price changes · October 1, 2026).
10. Large moves cluster: 2022 and 2020 hold 60% of all 2%+ days
2022 had 46 days with a move above 2% and 2020 had 44, out of 151 in the window (WealthyBud data · 2,512 S&P 500 price changes · October 1, 2026).
The five worst daily price changes:
- March 16, 2020: −12.0%
- March 12, 2020: −9.5%
- March 9, 2020: −7.6%
- April 4, 2025: −6.0%
- June 11, 2020: −5.9%
The five best:
- April 9, 2025: +9.5%
- March 24, 2020: +9.4%
- March 13, 2020: +9.3%
- April 6, 2020: +7.0%
- March 26, 2020: +6.2%
Which years were the most volatile?
By average VIX close, 2008 was the most volatile year, at 32.7, and 2017 the calmest, at 11.1 (1990–2025). Realized volatility of the S&P 500 index, which covers only 2017–2025, peaked in 2020 at 35%. The partial current year is left out of both rankings.
11. 2008 had the highest average VIX, 32.69; 2017 the lowest, 11.09
Averages use every daily close in the year (1990–2025, 36 full years). 2026 is excluded because it is partial (WealthyBud data · 36 years · 1990–2025).
12. Realized volatility peaked in 2020 at 34.7% and was lowest in 2017 at 6.7%
Realized volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns of the S&P 500 price index times √252, over full years (2017–2025). 2026 through October 1, 2026 (188 returns) is 13.1%; 2016 is excluded because the series starts in October 2016 (WealthyBud data · 2,512 S&P 500 price changes · October 1, 2026).
13. The average VIX was above realized volatility in 7 of 9 full years
Years where it was not: 2018 and 2020. The comparison covers 2017–2025; the VIX is a forward-looking measure, so this is a description, not a test of forecast skill (WealthyBud data · 2,512 S&P 500 price changes · October 1, 2026).
| Rank | Year | Average VIX | Closes (n) | S&P 500 total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2008 | 32.69 | 253 | −39.2% |
| 2 | 2009 | 31.48 | 252 | 30.0% |
| 3 | 2020 | 29.25 | 253 | 18.5% |
| 4 | 2002 | 27.29 | 252 | −20.2% |
| 5 | 2001 | 25.75 | 248 | −12.8% |
| 6 | 2022 | 25.64 | 256 | −15.0% |
| 7 | 1998 | 25.60 | 252 | 25.5% |
| 8 | 1999 | 24.37 | 252 | 21.6% |
| 9 | 2011 | 24.20 | 252 | 2.1% |
| 10 | 2000 | 23.32 | 252 | −5.8% |
Near-ties (under 0.1 point apart): 2022 and 1998.
| Year | Realized volatility | Daily returns (n) | Average VIX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 6.7% | 251 | 11.1 |
| 2018 | 17.1% | 251 | 16.6 |
| 2019 | 12.5% | 252 | 15.4 |
| 2020 | 34.7% | 253 | 29.3 |
| 2021 | 13.1% | 252 | 19.7 |
| 2022 | 24.2% | 251 | 25.6 |
| 2023 | 13.1% | 250 | 16.8 |
| 2024 | 12.7% | 252 | 15.6 |
| 2025 | 18.6% | 250 | 18.9 |
How does volatility relate to returns?
Years with a negative S&P 500 total return had a higher average VIX: 24.9 across 7 years, against 18.1 across 29 years with a positive return (1990–2025). The two measures move in opposite directions (correlation −0.41). This is an association only; it does not show that one causes the other.
14. Average VIX: 24.9 in 7 down years, 18.1 in 29 up years
Down years: 1990, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2018 and 2022. Medians are 25.6 and 16.7. Returns are December-average to December-average total returns from Shiller’s monthly data, the convention used on our stock market returns page (WealthyBud data · 36 years · 1990–2025).
15. Across 36 years, average VIX and the calendar total return correlate at −0.41
A negative value means higher-VIX years tended to have lower returns. The correlation is one of 36 yearly points and says nothing about direction of cause (WealthyBud data · 36 years · 1990–2025).
16. On days the S&P 500 fell more than 1%, the VIX closed at 26.2 on average; on other days, 17.7
That is 275 down days against 2,237 other days, October 3, 2016 to October 1, 2026. The VIX is built from index options, so a same-day link is expected. This page does not test whether the VIX or the move predicts the next day (WealthyBud data · 2,512 S&P 500 price changes · October 1, 2026).
17. FINRA: volatility-linked products are not built to be held long
FINRA’s investor insight, dated August 22, 2023, says: “[V]olatility ETPs generally aren’t designed to be used as buy-and-hold investments—and while they can generate eye-popping gains, they can also quickly lose some or all of their value in a very short time.” (FINRA, Volatility Investing).
What this means for investors
Moderate days were frequent; extreme ones were rare. A move above 1% happened on 24.2% of days, about 1 in 4, and above 3% on 2.07%. Large moves cluster: the two busiest years hold 60% of days above 2% and 77% of days above 3%, but only 38% of days above 1%. See our stock market crashes and bear markets guides for the long record.
Read the VIX as an option-market forecast. It is not a prediction of direction. Browse the stocks hub for company-level data.
Volatility products carry their own risks. FINRA warns that they are generally not built for buy-and-hold use. For a comparison with another asset, see bitcoin’s volatility.
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