Statistics · 2026 · Stocks
Bear Market Statistics (2026)
The U.S. stock market has had 13 bear markets since January 1871, 8 of them since 1929. The median one fell 37.7% over 18 months, and stocks took a median 65 months to regain the old peak. This page counts a bear market as a 20% fall in Shiller’s monthly average S&P prices, so its count differs from daily-close tallies.
Key takeaways
- The monthly record shows 13 bear markets in 155 years, and 8 since 1929.
- The median bear market lasted 18 months from peak to trough and cost 37.7%.
- The median bull run between bear markets lasted 75.5 months and gained 137%, about 4 times as long as the median bear market.
- Every bear market in the data eventually recovered, taking a median 65 months from the old peak.
- As of September 2026, the market sits 0.3% below its monthly high, so no bear market is under way.
How often do bear markets happen?
The monthly record shows 13 bear markets between January 1871 and June 2026. Since 1929 there have been 8, with a median of 13 years between successive peaks. Bear markets cluster in some eras and skip others, so the median gap says little about timing.
1. 13 bear markets in 155 years; 8 since 1929
Using the 20% rule that the SEC’s investor education site describes (see the Investor.gov definition), the monthly price record contains 13 peak-to-trough declines of at least 20%. 5 began before 1929 (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
2. A median of 13 years between bear-market peaks since 1929
The gaps between the 8 post-1929 peaks ranged from 4.1 to 32.2 years. The median is taken over 7 gaps (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
3. Bear markets began in 9 of 16 decades
Counting the decade of each peak, 7 of the 16 decades had no bear-market peak. The busiest decade saw 3 peaks (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
4. Stocks spent 30% of all months falling from a peak to a trough
The 13 declines add up to 551 months out of 1,865. The remaining time was spent recovering or rising (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
For the sharpest declines on record, including one-day moves, see our stock market crash statistics. That page measures declines in a total-return index, with dividends reinvested, so its counts and recovery times differ from this page’s price-only index.
How long does a bear market last?
The median bear market lasted 18 months from peak to trough, or 1.5 years. The mean is 42 months because a few grinding declines ran for more than a decade. Since 1929, the median is 17.5 months, and the longest lasted 33 months. Durations use monthly averages.
5. Median 18 months from peak to trough; mean 42
Across 13 bear markets, peak-to-trough time ranged from 4 to 182 months. The mean sits above the median because of long outliers (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
6. Longest: 182 months, June 1881 to August 1896
That decline took 42.1% off monthly prices over 15.2 years. Since 1929 the longest ran 33 months, from September 1929 to June 1932 (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
7. Shortest: 4 months, August 1987 to December 1987
The 1987 episode was the quickest to reach 20% on monthly averages, with a 26.8% fall. 8 of 13 bear markets reached their trough within 24 months (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
How much do stocks fall in a bear market?
The median bear market cut prices by 37.7%, and the mean decline was 39.6%. Declines ranged from 20.3% to 84.8%. 8 of the 13 fell 30% or more, and 6 fell 40% or more. Since 1929, the median decline is 36.2%.
8. Median decline 37.7%; mean 39.6%
Over 13 bear markets the declines averaged 39.61%, pulled up by the September 1929 collapse. Since 1929 the median is 36.19% (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
9. Deepest: −84.8%, September 1929 to June 1932
The next deepest was −50.8% from October 2007 to March 2009. Monthly averages smooth out one-day extremes, so these are the series’ own measures (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
10. 6 of 13 bear markets fell 40% or more; 8 fell 30% or more
The mildest, from December 2021 to October 2022, lost 20.3%, only just past the 20% line (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
11. Daily closes found 2 bear markets in the last decade; monthly averages found 1
In the S&P 500 daily closes since October 3, 2016, the declines were 33.9% from February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 and 25.4% from January 3, 2022 to October 12, 2022 (FRED series SP500). The fast February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 drop is invisible in monthly averages (WealthyBud data · 2,513 days · October 1, 2026).
| Peak | Trough | Decline | Months down |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 1929 | June 1932 | −84.8% | 33 |
| December 1961 | June 1962 | −22.5% | 6 |
| December 1968 | June 1970 | −29.0% | 18 |
| January 1973 | December 1974 | −43.4% | 23 |
| August 1987 | December 1987 | −26.8% | 4 |
| August 2000 | February 2003 | −43.7% | 30 |
| October 2007 | March 2009 | −50.8% | 17 |
| December 2021 | October 2022 | −20.3% | 10 |
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How long do bull markets last?
Between bear markets, the median bull run lasted 75.5 months, or 6.3 years, and gained 137%. That is about 4 times the median bear market. The record has 12 completed bull runs, measured from each trough to the next bear market's peak. Gains vary widely.
12. Median bull run: 75.5 months and 137%
Across 12 completed runs, the median gain was 136.7%. A run here ends at the peak before the next 20% decline, so it includes small pullbacks (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
13. Longest: 354 months, June 1932 to December 1961
Prices rose 1404% over 29.5 years, starting from the 1932 trough and ending at the 1961 peak (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
14. The current run is 47 months old, up 106%
Since the October 2022 trough, monthly prices have risen 106% through September 2026. Among 12 completed runs it would rank 10 by length and 8 by gain (WealthyBud data · 1,869 months · September 2026).
The SEC says a bull market generally means a rise of 20% or more in a broad index over at least two months. This page measures the whole stretch between bear markets instead.
The five longest completed bull runs, trough to next peak:
- June 1932 to December 1961: 354 months (29.5 years), a gain of 1404%.
- March 2009 to December 2021: 153 months (12.8 years), a gain of 517%.
- December 1974 to August 1987: 152 months (12.7 years), a gain of 391%.
- December 1987 to August 2000: 152 months (12.7 years), a gain of 516%.
- August 1921 to September 1929: 97 months (8.1 years), a gain of 385%.
How long does recovery take?
The median bear market took 65 months, or 5.4 years, to climb back to its old peak, counted from the peak. From the trough, the median wait was 32 months. All 13 recovered, but the range was wide. These price-only figures ignore dividends, which shorten real-world recovery.
15. Median 65 months from peak back to peak; mean 94
Peak-to-recovery times ran from 21 to 300 months across 13 episodes. Nominal price only, with no dividends (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
16. Longest: 300 months (25.0 years) after September 1929
Monthly prices did not regain the September 1929 peak until September 1954. That is 25.0 years of waiting on price alone (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
17. Median 32 months from trough to a new high
Once prices bottomed, regaining the old peak took 14 to 267 months. The latest episode took 14 months, from October 2022 to December 2023 (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
Dividends matter for recovery. Our look at stock market returns shows how reinvested income changes the long-run math.
Where is the market now versus its peak?
The monthly average S&P Composite was 7,691.10 in September 2026, which is 0.3% below its 7,711.32 high in August 2026. Daily closes put the S&P 500 1.7% below its ten-year high. A bear market needs a fall of 20% from the high, so neither measure is close.
18. 0.3% below the monthly high as of September 2026
The series high is 7,711.32 (August 2026); September 2026 averaged 7,691.10. The Shiller dividend and CPI inputs end in June 2026; price runs through September 2026 (the partial current month is excluded) (WealthyBud data · 1,869 months · September 2026).
19. 1.7% below the ten-year daily high
The S&P 500 closed at 7,666.45 on October 1, 2026, against a close of 7,798.99 on August 13, 2026 (FRED) (WealthyBud data · 2,513 days · October 1, 2026).
20. A 20% fall from the monthly high means about 6,169
WealthyBud’s calculation: 80% of 7,711.32 is 6,169, which would put a monthly average 19.8% below September 2026’s level. This is a threshold, not a forecast (WealthyBud data · 1,869 months · September 2026).
What this means for investors
Expect bear markets to return. The 8 bear markets since 1929 had a median of 13 years between peaks. Plan for at least one over a long career, but do not try to time it.
Match risk to the timeline. A median recovery of 5.4 years suits long horizons. Money needed within a few years sits uneasily in stocks, because the worst episode took 25.0 years to recover.
Do not sell the bottom. Bull runs have outlasted bear markets, with a median gain of 137%. A diversified fund such as VOO lets you stay invested through both phases.
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