Statistics · 2026 · Stocks
Stock Market Returns Statistics (2026)
U.S. stocks have returned an average of 9.4% a year since January 1871, or 7.1% after inflation, with dividends reinvested through June 2026. The figures use the S&P Composite monthly averages in Robert Shiller’s data, so they differ slightly from daily-close S&P 500 numbers. Stocks rose in 113 of 154 calendar years.
Key takeaways
- The average annual total return of U.S. stocks since January 1871 is 9.4% before inflation and 7.1% after it.
- Stocks gained in 113 of 154 calendar years (73.4%), and lost more than 20% in only 8.
- The best decade was the 1950s at 19.3% a year. The worst full decade was the 2000s at −0.7% a year.
- No 20-year period in the data lost money before inflation, and no 30-year period lost money after it.
- Reinvested dividends added 4.5 percentage points a year to the long-run return.
What is the average annual return of the stock market?
The average annual total return of U.S. stocks is 9.4% since January 1871, or 7.1% after inflation. These are compound annual growth rates with dividends reinvested, measured through June 2026. Starting in 1926 or 1950 gives higher averages of 10.5% and 11.7%, because the 1870s and 1880s were slow decades for stocks.
1. 9.4% a year, before inflation, since January 1871
The S&P Composite, with dividends reinvested, compounded at 9.39% a year over 155.4 years. Price alone grew 4.89% a year (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
2. 7.1% a year after inflation
Deflating by the consumer price index cuts the long-run rate to 7.10% a year. (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
3. 10.5% nominal and 7.3% real since 1926
Starting in January 1926, when Shiller’s dividend data switch to S&P figures, the compound return is 10.48% nominal and 7.30% real (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
4. 11.7% nominal and 7.8% real since 1950
Since January 1950 stocks compounded at 11.65% a year, or 7.84% after inflation (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
5. The last 10 years returned 15.5% a year; the last 30 returned 10.3%
Ending in June 2026, the 10-, 20- and 30-year compound returns are 15.5%, 11.4% and 10.3% nominal, or 11.8%, 8.6% and 7.5% real (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
Index funds such as SPY and VOO aim to match the S&P 500’s return, less fees. See our guide to index funds.
| Period | Nominal | After inflation |
|---|---|---|
| Since January 1871 | 9.4% | 7.1% |
| Since January 1926 | 10.5% | 7.3% |
| Since January 1950 | 11.7% | 7.8% |
| Last 30 years (from June 1996) | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| Last 20 years (from June 2006) | 11.4% | 8.6% |
| Last 10 years (from June 2016) | 15.5% | 11.8% |
What were stock market returns by decade?
Decade returns ranged from −0.7% a year in the 2000s to 19.3% a year in the 1950s. Before inflation, only the 2000s lost money, and the 1930s were flat. After inflation, stocks lost purchasing power in 3 decades. The table below lists every decade, nominal and real.
6. The 1950s were the best decade: 19.3% a year
From December 1949 to December 1959, stocks compounded at 19.25% a year, or 16.66% after inflation (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
7. The 2000s were the worst full decade: −0.7% a year
The decade spans the dot-com bust and the 2008 crash. Investors earned −0.73% a year before inflation and −3.17% after it. A dollar invested in December 1999 was worth $0.93 ten years later (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
8. Stocks lost purchasing power in 3 decades
After inflation, returns were negative in the 1910s, the 1970s and the 2000s. For scale, consumer prices rose 7.4% a year in the 1970s (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
9. The 2020s are running at 15.7% a year so far
From December 2019 through June 2026, stocks compounded at 15.70% a year, or 11.13% after inflation. The decade is not over (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
| Decade | Nominal total return, annualized | Real total return, annualized |
|---|---|---|
| 1880s | 6.0% | 8.3% |
| 1890s | 5.7% | 5.6% |
| 1900s | 10.3% | 7.7% |
| 1910s | 4.5% | −1.9% |
| 1920s | 15.2% | 16.3% |
| 1930s | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| 1940s | 8.9% | 3.4% |
| 1950s | 19.3% | 16.7% |
| 1960s | 7.8% | 5.1% |
| 1970s | 5.8% | −1.4% |
| 1980s | 17.3% | 11.6% |
| 1990s | 18.0% | 14.6% |
| 2000s | −0.7% | −3.2% |
| 2010s | 13.3% | 11.4% |
| 2020s (to date) | 15.7% | 11.1% |
How often does the stock market go up in a year?
Stocks rose in 113 of 154 complete calendar years, or 73.4%, between 1872 and 2025. They fell in 41 years. After inflation, stocks gained in 107 of 154 years (69.5%). A positive year is likely, but it is never guaranteed, and a few years lost more than a third of their value.
10. Stocks rose in 113 of 154 years (73.4%)
Measured December to December with dividends reinvested, 113 calendar years from 1872 to 2025 were positive and 41 were negative (WealthyBud data · 154 years · June 2026).
11. 53 years gained more than 20%; 8 lost more than 20%
Another 11 years fell between 10% and 20%. The longest losing streak was 4 years, ending in 1932 (WealthyBud data · 154 years · June 2026).
12. 69.5% of years were positive after inflation
Adjusting for the consumer price index, 107 of 154 years beat inflation, and 47 did not (WealthyBud data · 154 years · June 2026).
13. The median year returned 13.2%; the average year 10.9%
The mean of yearly returns (10.93%) exceeds the compound rate (9.39%) because big swings drag on compounding (WealthyBud data · 154 years · June 2026).
Compare the major S&P 500 and total-market ETFs
What were the best and worst years for stocks?
The best calendar year was 1933, with a 54.4% total return. The worst was 1931, at −41.8%. The 2008 financial crisis cost investors 39.2%. Annual figures here run from one December average to the next, so they smooth out single-day highs and lows.
14. Best year: 1933, +54.4%
Stocks gained 54.4% in 1933, after the early-1930s collapse. All five best years came before 1955 (WealthyBud data · 154 years · June 2026).
15. Worst year: 1931, −41.8%
1931 was the deepest calendar-year loss, followed by 2008 at −39.2%. Stocks lost 15.0% in 2022 and 20.2% in 2002 (WealthyBud data · 154 years · June 2026).
16. Deepest real drawdown: −76.8% from September 1929 to June 1932
After inflation, the 1929 peak-to-trough decline took 76.8% off a portfolio. It took until November 1936 to regain the old high in real terms (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
The five best calendar years:
- 1933: +54.4% total return (53.2% after inflation).
- 1879: +49.4% total return (26.0% after inflation).
- 1954: +48.1% total return (49.2% after inflation).
- 1935: +47.0% total return (42.8% after inflation).
- 1908: +45.1% total return (40.5% after inflation).
The five worst calendar years:
- 1931: −41.8% total return (−35.8% after inflation).
- 2008: −39.2% total return (−39.3% after inflation).
- 1937: −31.9% total return (−33.8% after inflation).
- 1907: −29.5% total return (−27.9% after inflation).
- 1974: −26.1% total return (−34.2% after inflation).
Because the series uses monthly averages, its yearly lows look milder than single-day lows would.
How do 10-, 20- and 30-year returns compare?
Longer holding periods narrow the range. The median 10-year return is 8.7% a year, with 97.1% of windows positive. Every 20-year window gained before inflation. Every 30-year window gained even after inflation, with a worst case of 1.9% a year. Time in the market narrowed the range of outcomes a great deal.
17. 10-year returns ranged from −4.0% to 21.2% a year
Across 1,746 overlapping 10-year windows, 97.1% were positive before inflation and 88.9% after it. The worst nominal window ended in August 1939 (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
18. 20-year returns ranged from 2.0% to 17.9% a year
None of the 1,626 20-year windows lost money in dollars. After inflation, 99.9% gained; the one exception ended in June 1921 at −0.22% a year (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
19. 30-year returns never fell below 1.9% a year after inflation
Across 1,506 30-year windows, the worst real return was 1.89% a year (ending June 1932), and the median was 6.77% (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
| Window | Nominal range | Nominal median | Nominal windows positive | Real range | Real median | Real windows positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | −4.0% to 21.2% | 8.7% | 97.1% | −5.9% to 20.0% | 7.0% | 88.9% |
| 20 years | 2.0% to 17.9% | 8.2% | 100.0% | −0.2% to 13.6% | 6.8% | 99.9% |
| 30 years | 3.6% to 14.3% | 9.9% | 100.0% | 1.9% to 11.2% | 6.8% | 100.0% |
Windows overlap, so they are not independent observations. Early windows also lean on estimated dividends: Shiller interpolates pre-1926 dividend data from annual figures (Yale data page).
How much do dividends and inflation change returns?
Dividends account for 4.5 of the 9.4 percentage points in the long-run annual return. Inflation takes back 2.3 points. Over 155 years, reinvesting dividends turned a 1,678-fold price gain into a 1,144,582-fold gain in total value. Inflation raised prices 26.8-fold over the same span.
20. Dividends added 4.5 points a year
Price alone grew 4.89% a year; with dividends reinvested the rate was 9.39%. Since 1926 the gap is 3.9 points. The S&P 500 dividend yield was 1.10% in June 2026, against 5.86% in January 1871 and a median of 4.19% (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
21. Consumer prices rose 26.8-fold, or 2.1% a year
Inflation averaged 2.14% a year from January 1871 to June 2026. It ran 7.4% a year in the 1970s and 1.8% in the 2010s (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
22. $10,000 invested June 1996 grew to $189,092, or $88,728 in real terms
After inflation, the same investment is worth about $88,728 in June 1996 dollars (WealthyBud data · 1,866 months · June 2026).
For context on today’s prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the all-items consumer price index rose 3.4% over the 12 months to August 2026, per its CPI news release, so inflation is running above its long-run average of 2.1%.
What this means for investors
Plan on a real return, not a headline one. The nominal 9.4% average sounds high, but 7.1% is what stocks added to purchasing power. Retirement and savings projections that ignore inflation overstate future buying power.
Expect down years. Stocks fell in about one calendar year in four. A 15.0% loss like 2022 is not unusual: 19 of 154 years lost more than 10%. Losses as deep as 2008’s −39.2% happened in only 3 years.
Time matters more than timing. Ten-year returns were negative in 2.9% of windows, while 30-year returns never were. Long holding periods removed the risk of losing money, though not the risk of a low return.
Do not extrapolate the recent past. The last 10 years returned 15.5% a year, well above the 9.4% long-run rate. A broad fund such as SPY or VOO captures the market’s return, whatever the decade brings.
More Stocks statistics
Inflation and Stocks Statistics (2026)
How inflation shapes U.S. stock returns — real versus nominal returns since 1871 and performance in high- and low-inflation years.
View ResearchStock Market Crash Statistics (2026)
The biggest U.S. stock market crashes since 1871 — how far stocks fell, how long declines lasted and how long recoveries took.
View ResearchStock Market Statistics (2026)
Combined market cap, revenue and margins across 103 large-cap U.S. stocks, computed from SEC EDGAR filings.
View HubStock Fundamentals & Investor Scores
103 large-cap companies ranked by SEC-filed fundamentals.
View