Statistics · 2026 · Crypto
Bitcoin Volatility Statistics (2026)
Bitcoin’s annualized volatility was 43% over the 365 days to October 1, 2026, about 3.3 times the 13% of the S&P 500. That is well below its 67% average since 2016, so bitcoin has calmed down. It still moved 5% or more on 15 days in the past year, and its link to stocks changes from year to year.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s annualized volatility averaged 67% from 2016 to October 1, 2026, and was 43% over the latest 365 days.
- Yearly volatility peaked at 93% in 2017 and hit a full-year low of 42% in 2025.
- Over the past year, bitcoin was 3.3 times as volatile as the S&P 500 (43% against 13%).
- Bitcoin gained or lost 5% or more on 12.1% of days since 2016 and 10% or more on 2.3%.
- Its daily correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.24 overall and ranged from −0.11 in 2019 to 0.56 in 2022.
- On the monthly measure used for ETFs (60 returns to September 30, 2026), bitcoin’s volatility is 57%, 3.3 times the 17% of gold (GLD).
How volatile is bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s annualized volatility was 67% from 2016 through October 1, 2026, and 43% over the latest 365 days. Volatility is the standard deviation of daily returns scaled to a year, so 67% is a typical one-year swing either way, several times what stocks show.
1. 66.9% average annualized volatility since 2016
The standard deviation of 3,925 daily log returns, multiplied by √365 because bitcoin trades every day, gives 66.9%. Prices are Coinbase daily closes from FRED (WealthyBud data · 3,925 daily returns · October 1, 2026).
2. 43.0% over the latest 365 days
From October 2, 2025 to October 1, 2026, the annualized volatility of 365 daily returns was 43.0%. That is 24 percentage points below the long-run average (WealthyBud data · 365 daily returns · October 1, 2026).
3. A typical day moves bitcoin 3.5%
The standard deviation of daily percentage changes is 3.49% for bitcoin against 1.14% for the S&P 500, which is 3.1 times as large (WealthyBud data · 3,925 daily returns · October 1, 2026).
4. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York: bitcoin is more volatile than most traditional assets
Fed researchers wrote that BTC and ETH “display volatilities that are higher than those of most traditional assets in normal periods” and that BTC fell by more than 70 percent from its November 2021 peak to May 2022 (Economic Policy Review, November 2024). Coinbase closes show a 77% fall from the November 8, 2021 high to the lowest close of 2022, on November 21, 2022 (WealthyBud data · 419 daily closes · October 1, 2026).
Is bitcoin getting less volatile?
Yes. Bitcoin’s yearly volatility fell from 93% in 2017 to 42% in 2025, and 43% over the past 365 days. Volatility was under 50% in 4 of the 11 calendar years in the sample (2016, 2023, 2025, 2026; 2026 is to date).
5. Volatility peaked at 93% in 2017
2017 was the most volatile full calendar year, based on 365 daily returns. Volatility topped 80% in 3 full years (2017, 2018, 2021) (WealthyBud data · 365 daily returns · October 1, 2026).
6. The calmest full year was 2025, at 42%
2017’s volatility was 2.2 times 2025’s. Since 2023, yearly volatility has stayed between 42% and 53%, so the decline has levelled off (WealthyBud data · 274 daily returns · October 1, 2026).
| Year | Bitcoin annualized volatility | S&P 500 annualized volatility | Correlation (daily returns) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 49.9% | n/a | n/a |
| 2017 | 93.1% | 6.7% | 0.06 |
| 2018 | 83.7% | 17.1% | 0.07 |
| 2019 | 70.4% | 12.5% | −0.11 |
| 2020 | 79.3% | 34.7% | 0.43 |
| 2021 | 80.5% | 13.1% | 0.26 |
| 2022 | 64.5% | 24.2% | 0.56 |
| 2023 | 43.8% | 13.1% | 0.16 |
| 2024 | 53.0% | 12.7% | 0.28 |
| 2025 | 41.9% | 18.6% | −0.02 |
| 2026 (to October 1) | 43.6% | 13.1% | 0.43 |
Only one-day returns count, so a missing day in the Coinbase record drops that return. 2016 is the first year used because the series is sparse in 2014 and early 2015, with a close of $120 on January 14, 2015. The S&P 500 series starts on October 3, 2016, so 2016 shows n/a, as does any year with under 100 paired returns. For the price record see bitcoin price history.
How does bitcoin’s volatility compare with stocks?
Bitcoin is several times more volatile than U.S. stocks. Over the latest 365 days its annualized volatility was 43%, against 13% for the S&P 500. In each full year since 2017 bitcoin was between 2.2 and 13.9 times as volatile as the index. Even the S&P 500’s most volatile year was calmer than bitcoin’s calmest.
7. 3.3x: bitcoin’s volatility against the S&P 500, last 12 months
Bitcoin’s 43.0% compares with 13.0% for the S&P 500 (daily closes, annualized with √252 over 251 trading-day returns) (WealthyBud data · 251 S&P returns · October 1, 2026).
8. The S&P 500 moved 5% or more in a day 13 times in 2,512 trading days
That is 0.5% of days from October 3, 2016. Its largest one-day fall was −12.0% on March 16, 2020. Over the same window bitcoin moved 5% or more on 12.4% of days (WealthyBud data · 2,512 S&P returns · October 1, 2026).
9. Stock volatility is a different measure from the VIX
The Cboe VIX is “designed to measure the market’s expectation of 30-day forward looking volatility of the U.S. equity market, as conveyed by S&P 500 Index option prices” (Cboe VIX methodology). This page measures realized volatility from past closes, not an options-based forecast. See also stock market volatility.
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How often does bitcoin move 5% or more in a day?
Bitcoin moved 5% or more in a day 474 times since 2016, or 12.1% of days: roughly one day in 8. Moves of 10% or more happened 89 times (2.3%). Big days have become rarer: 92 in 2017 against 15 in the latest 365 days.
10. 474 days with a 5%+ move, 12.1% of all days
256 were gains and 218 were losses, close to close (WealthyBud data · 3,925 daily returns · October 1, 2026).
11. 89 days with a 10%+ move (2.27%)
Bitcoin has had 89 such days since 2016. No full year was free of 5% days. 2017 had the most 5% days, at 92 (WealthyBud data · 3,925 daily returns · October 1, 2026).
12. The largest daily loss was −37.4% on March 12, 2020
Bitcoin’s biggest one-day gain was +27.2% on July 20, 2017. These are Coinbase close-to-close changes, so intraday swings were larger (WealthyBud data · 3,925 daily returns · October 1, 2026).
| Year | Daily returns | Days with a 5%+ move | Days with a 10%+ move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 366 | 25 | 6 |
| 2017 | 365 | 92 | 22 |
| 2018 | 365 | 74 | 18 |
| 2019 | 365 | 48 | 12 |
| 2020 | 364 | 46 | 8 |
| 2021 | 365 | 76 | 9 |
| 2022 | 365 | 37 | 10 |
| 2023 | 365 | 23 | 1 |
| 2024 | 366 | 27 | 2 |
| 2025 | 365 | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 (to October 1) | 274 | 13 | 1 |
The two largest daily gains:
- July 20, 2017: bitcoin rose 27.2% from the previous day’s close.
- December 7, 2017: bitcoin rose 23.4% from the previous day’s close.
The two largest daily losses:
- March 12, 2020: bitcoin fell 37.4% from the previous day’s close.
- January 15, 2016: bitcoin fell 16.9% from the previous day’s close.
Does bitcoin move with the stock market?
Only weakly, and not consistently. The correlation of daily returns between bitcoin and the S&P 500 was 0.24 from October 2016 to October 2026. By calendar year it ranged from −0.11 in 2019 to 0.56 in 2022, so the link strengthens in some years and vanishes in others.
13. Correlation of 0.24 across 2,510 trading days
Using only dates present in both series, with bitcoin’s return measured over the same interval as each S&P 500 return, the correlation is 0.24. Squared, that is 5.6%: stock moves line up with about that share of bitcoin’s daily variance (WealthyBud data · 2,510 paired returns · October 1, 2026).
14. Correlation ranged from −0.11 to 0.56 by year
It was highest in 2022 and lowest in 2019. It was negative in 2 of 10 years (2019, 2025). Years need 100 or more paired returns, and 2026 is to date (WealthyBud data · 2,448 paired returns · October 1, 2026).
15. 2026 year to date: 0.43, against −0.02 in 2025
The 2026 figure uses 188 paired returns through October 1, 2026. The 2025 figure uses 250 (WealthyBud data · 188 paired returns · October 1, 2026).
A correlation near zero does not mean bitcoin ignores markets. In the two years when stocks were most volatile (2020 and 2022), the correlation was 0.43 and 0.56. See crypto bear markets for how bitcoin behaves in downturns.
How does bitcoin compare with gold?
Bitcoin is 3.3 times as volatile as gold. On the monthly-return method used for ETFs, bitcoin’s annualized volatility is 57% over the last 60 complete monthly returns through September 30, 2026, against 17% for the gold fund GLD and 16% for SPY. Gold was more volatile than the S&P 500 fund.
16. 56.5% for bitcoin against 17.2% for gold
The ETF dataset computes volatility from the last 60 complete monthly returns through September 30, 2026 (sample standard deviation times √12; the open month is left out). Applying the same method to bitcoin’s last daily close of each month, September 30, 2021 to September 30, 2026, gives 56.5%, 3.3 times gold’s and 3.6 times SPY’s 15.7% (WealthyBud data · 60 monthly returns · October 1, 2026).
17. Monthly sampling gives a higher figure than daily sampling
Over the same window (September 30, 2021 to September 30, 2026), bitcoin’s daily-return volatility was 51.3%, against 56.5% from monthly returns. The two sampling methods give different numbers, so compare monthly numbers only with monthly numbers (WealthyBud data · 60 months · October 1, 2026).
| Asset | Volatility (monthly returns, annualized by √12) | Bitcoin’s volatility as a multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (Coinbase month-end closes) | 56.5% | 1.0x |
| Gold (GLD, SPDR Gold Shares) | 17.2% | 3.3x |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 15.7% | 3.6x |
Gold volatility comes from GLD’s monthly total returns, not from the spot gold price. The BTC-gold daily correlation is not computed here because the dataset holds no daily gold series.
What this means for investors
Size the position for a 43% swing. Even in its calmest period, bitcoin moved far more than stocks. A holding worth 5% of a portfolio adds about 2.2 percentage points of swing to the total in a one-standard-deviation year.
Expect big days to keep coming. Bitcoin averaged one 5%-plus day every 8 days since 2016. The latest year had 15, so the calmer trend lowers the odds without removing the risk.
Do not count on diversification from stocks. A correlation of 0.24 overall sounds low, but it was 0.56 in 2022, and it is 0.43 for 2026 to date. A low average hides years when the two moved together.
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