Statistics · 2026 · Crypto
Crypto Bear Market Statistics (2026)
Bitcoin has fallen at least 50% from a peak 4 times since November 2015, and ether has done so 6 times since May 2016, according to Coinbase daily closes. The deepest bitcoin decline was 83.8%, from December 16, 2017 to December 15, 2018. The latest drop reached 53.0% for bitcoin and 67.6% for ether in June 2026.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin has had 4 declines of 50% or more since November 2015, from 83.8% at the deepest to 53.0% at the shallowest.
- Across all 10 bitcoin and ether declines, the median fall was 67.7% and the median peak-to-trough time was 245 days.
- On October 2, 2026, the median non-stablecoin in CoinGecko’s top 250 sat 82.4% below its all-time high.
- The median S&P 500 decline of 20% or more since 1871 was 37.7%, so the median crypto decline (50% threshold) was about 1.8 times deeper than the stock median (20% threshold).
How far has bitcoin fallen in past bear markets?
Bitcoin has fallen 50% or more from a peak 4 times since November 2015, based on Coinbase daily closes. The deepest drop was 83.8% between December 16, 2017 and December 15, 2018. A mid-cycle drop in 2021 reached 53.2%. The latest decline, from the October 5, 2025 peak, reached 53.0%.
1. Deepest bitcoin decline: 83.8%, 2017–2018
The daily close fell from $19,650 on December 16, 2017 to $3,183 on December 15, 2018, per Coinbase Bitcoin (CBBTCUSD) on FRED. (WealthyBud data · 4,288 daily closes · October 2026)
2. The 2021–22 decline reached 76.7% over 378 days
Bitcoin closed at $67,510 on November 8, 2021 and $15,756 on November 21, 2022. It regained the November 8, 2021 close on March 4, 2024 (WealthyBud data · 4,288 daily closes · October 2026)
3. A mid-cycle drop of 53.2% in 2021 recovered in 189 days
From April 13, 2021 to July 20, 2021, bitcoin lost 53.2%, then closed above the April peak on October 19, 2021. (WealthyBud data · 4,288 daily closes · October 2026)
4. The latest decline: 53.0% to June 30, 2026, now 32.0% below the peak
Bitcoin closed at $124,720 on October 5, 2025, bottomed at $58,586 on June 30, 2026 and closed at $84,760 on October 1, 2026. The episode is still open. CoinGecko’s intraday measure puts bitcoin 32.4% below its high on October 2, 2026 (CoinGecko).
5. UST’s May 2022 depeg fell inside the 77% bitcoin decline
The SEC’s February 16, 2023 press release says that in May 2022 “UST depegged from the U.S. dollar, and the price of it and its sister tokens plummeted to close to zero.” Bitcoin’s peak came before May 2022 and its low after it. The SEC release does not say Terra caused bitcoin’s decline.
| Asset | Peak close date | Trough date | Decline | Days down | Days from trough to old peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | December 16, 2017 | December 15, 2018 | −83.8% | 364 | 716 days |
| Bitcoin | April 13, 2021 | July 20, 2021 | −53.2% | 98 | 91 days |
| Bitcoin | November 8, 2021 | November 21, 2022 | −76.7% | 378 | 469 days |
| Bitcoin | October 5, 2025 | June 30, 2026 | −53.0% | 268 | Not yet (93 days since trough) |
| Ether | June 16, 2016 | December 5, 2016 | −67.8% | 172 | 96 days |
| Ether | June 12, 2017 | July 16, 2017 | −60.8% | 34 | 130 days |
| Ether | January 13, 2018 | December 14, 2018 | −94.0% | 335 | 772 days |
| Ether | May 11, 2021 | July 20, 2021 | −57.2% | 70 | 95 days |
| Ether | November 8, 2021 | June 18, 2022 | −79.3% | 222 | 1,160 days |
| Ether | August 21, 2025 | June 28, 2026 | −67.6% | 311 | Not yet (95 days since trough) |
Bitcoin episodes start from November 3, 2015, the first close above the December 2014 high; a sparse early-2015 decline is left out. The ether series starts on May 18, 2016, so its first episode is measured from the highest close inside the series. “Days from trough to old peak” counts calendar days from the low until the close first exceeds the old peak.
How far has ether fallen?
Ether has fallen 50% or more from a peak 6 times since May 2016, using Coinbase daily closes. Its deepest decline was 94.0%, from January 13, 2018 to December 14, 2018. In the 4 cycles where both assets had a decline, ether fell further each time, by 94.0% against 83.8%, 57.2% against 53.2%, 79.3% against 76.7%, 67.6% against 53.0%.
6. Deepest ether decline: 94.0%, 2018
The close fell from $1,386 on January 13, 2018 to $83.00 on December 14, 2018, per Coinbase Ethereum (CBETHUSD) on FRED. Ether did not close above that peak until January 24, 2021. (WealthyBud data · 3,786 daily closes · October 2026)
7. The latest ether decline: 67.6% to June 28, 2026, now 44.1% below the peak
Ether set a peak close of $4,831 on August 21, 2025, fell to $1,566 on June 28, 2026 and closed at $2,702 on October 1, 2026. The episode is still open.
8. Ether fell further than bitcoin in all 4 overlapping cycles
WealthyBud pairs each bitcoin decline with the ether decline whose peak falls within 60 days of it, giving 4 pairs with peaks in December 2017, April 2021, November 2021, October 2025. Ether’s other 2 declines have no bitcoin match. (WealthyBud data · 4 matched cycles · October 2026)
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How long do crypto bear markets last?
From peak to trough, the 10 bitcoin and ether declines of 50% or more lasted a median of 245 days, or about 8.0 months. The range ran from 34 days to 378 days. Days run from the peak close to the lowest close before the old peak returned.
9. Median peak-to-trough time: 245 days across 10 declines
Bitcoin’s 4 declines took 316 days at the median and ether’s 6 took 197 (WealthyBud data · 10 declines · October 2026)
How long does recovery take?
Across the 8 bitcoin and ether declines that have recovered, the median time from peak back to the old peak was 558 days, and from the low it was 300 days. The slowest was ether’s decline from November 8, 2021, at 1,382 days. Both assets have one decline still open today.
10. Bitcoin’s slowest recovery: 1,080 days, from December 16, 2017
The close first topped the $19,650 peak again on November 30, 2020, 716 days after the December 15, 2018 low (WealthyBud data · 3 recovered bitcoin declines · October 2026)
11. Ether’s slowest recovery: 1,382 days, from November 8, 2021
Ether fell 79.3% to $996.44 on June 18, 2022 and did not close above $4,806 until August 21, 2025 (WealthyBud data · 5 recovered ether declines · October 2026)
12. The 2022 low came 346 days before the FTX founder’s conviction
The U.S. Attorney’s Office, Southern District of New York said on November 2, 2023 that Samuel Bankman-Fried “was convicted of two counts of wire fraud conspiracy, two counts of wire fraud, and one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering,” among other counts. The Department of Justice later said he was sentenced on March 28, 2024 to 25 years in prison. On the conviction date bitcoin closed at $34,935, 122% above its November 21, 2022 low and still short of its peak; it needed 123 more days to regain it. Neither release links the case to prices.
How far below their highs are most coins today?
On October 2, 2026, the median non-stablecoin in CoinGecko’s top 250 traded 82.4% below its all-time high. 155 of 212 coins (73.1%) sit at least 50% below their highs, and 85 sit 90% or more below. Only 16 are within 10% of a record.
13. Median distance from all-time high: 82.4%
The pool is the 212 coins left in CoinGecko’s top 250 by market cap after removing 35 members of CoinGecko’s stablecoin category (its 50 largest) and 3 more coins priced within 3% of $1.00 and within 1% of their all-time high, a $1-peg signature. A coin’s high dates from its own listing (WealthyBud data · 212 coins · October 2, 2026)
14. Median distance from high: 64.2% for the 50 largest coins, 88.8% for the rest
Ranking the 212 coins by market cap, the top 50 include 29 coins at least 50% below their highs, while the remaining 162 have a median gap of 88.8%. Bitcoin is 32.4% below its high and ether is 45.6% below (Bitcoin, Ethereum) (WealthyBud data · 212 coins · October 2, 2026)
The same buckets, in plain sentences:
- 16 coins (7.5%) are within 10% of their high.
- 10 coins (4.7%) are 10% to 25% below their high.
- 31 coins (14.6%) are 25% to 50% below their high.
- 29 coins (13.7%) are 50% to 75% below their high.
- 41 coins (19.3%) are 75% to 90% below their high.
- 85 coins (40.1%) are 90% or more below their high.
How do crypto bear markets compare with stock bear markets?
The S&P 500 has had 13 declines of 20% or more in monthly data since 1871, with a median fall of 37.7%. The median bitcoin or ether decline of 50% or more was 67.7%, about 1.8 times deeper. Stock declines took a median of 18 months of monthly averages to bottom, about 548 days, against 245 for crypto.
15. S&P 500: 13 declines of 20% or more since 1871, median 37.7%
The deepest, from September 1929 to June 1932, was 84.8% in the nominal price index. The data come from Robert Shiller and multpl.com monthly prices, so declines are measured on monthly-average values, not daily closes (WealthyBud data · 13 declines · June 2026)
16. S&P 500 median time down: 18 months; median recovery from the low: 32 months
Across the 13 S&P 500 declines that have recovered, the median time from peak to old peak was 65 months. Crypto figures above are in days from daily closes, so the stock figures are coarser (WealthyBud data · 13 declines · June 2026)
The stock threshold is 20% and the crypto threshold is 50%, and the samples differ in length. For the long stock record, read stock market crash statistics.
What this means for investors
For holders, a 50% decline is a normal event in this record: 10 bitcoin and ether declines of that size in about a decade. Size a position so a 68% fall, the median here, does not force a sale.
For new buyers, compare the recovery times above with your time horizon. The median decline needed 558 days from peak to old peak, and the slowest took 1,382.
For comparing assets, remember that most smaller coins sit far from their highs. See the crypto hub, the data for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the related guides on bitcoin volatility and crypto all-time highs.
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