Statistics · 2026 · Real Estate
Home Price Forecast Statistics (2026)
WealthyBud's 12-month listing-price outlook is a model estimate, not a prediction. Among 775 metros with 100 or more listings, it puts 149 at Rising (19%), 390 at Flat and 236 at Cooling, with a median metro outlook of −0.6%. The outlook ranks metros against one another using momentum, supply and value scores; it is not a national price call. Fannie Mae's September 2026 forecast, a different national measure, is 2.3% for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027.
Key takeaways
- WealthyBud's model estimate, not a prediction, labels 149 of 775 metros with 100 or more listings Rising, 390 Flat and 236 Cooling.
- The median metro outlook is −0.6%, and estimates run from −6.8% to +7.2%.
- Indiana, PA has the strongest WealthyBud model estimate at +7.2%, and Sevierville, TN the weakest at −6.8%.
- Fannie Mae's September 11, 2026 forecast is 2.3% for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027 (Fannie Mae HPI, Q4 over Q4); it lowered both figures from its June 10 edition.
- The WealthyBud outlook has not been back-tested, so this page makes no claim about its accuracy.
Will home prices go up or down in the next year?
No one can say with certainty. The WealthyBud model estimate, not a prediction, is mixed by design: 149 of 775 metros with 100 or more listings are Rising, 390 Flat and 236 Cooling, with a median of −0.6%. Published national forecasts cluster at modest gains, but each uses its own measure.
1. WealthyBud model estimate: 149 Rising, 390 Flat, 236 Cooling of 775 metros
Shares are 19%, 50% and 30% of metros with 100 or more active listings and an outlook. This is a model estimate, not a prediction (WealthyBud data · 775 metros · Realtor.com listings and WealthyBud scores · September 2026).
2. The median metro model estimate is −0.6%, with a mean of −0.4%
Estimates range from −6.8% to +7.2%; 0 reach the ±10% cap. 321 are above zero, 442 below and 12 exactly zero. The inputs are percentile ranks across metros, so the outlook is relative and centers near zero by construction; it is not a national price level (WealthyBud data · 775 metros · Realtor.com listings and WealthyBud scores · September 2026).
3. Rising metros have a median list-price change of +3.8% today; Cooling metros, −2.8%
Flat metros sit at −0.5%, against −0.6% for all 775. These are Realtor.com year-over-year changes in the median listing price, an input to the outlook (see home price appreciation statistics). The correlation between the estimate and the current change is 0.34 (moderate), which does not show the outlook predicts the next year. 8 metros report no change and are kept (WealthyBud data · 775 metros · Realtor.com listings and WealthyBud scores · September 2026).
4. 14 metros with 100 or more listings and 151 with fewer have no ranked outlook
Of 940 metros (Puerto Rico excluded), 151 have fewer than 100 active listings and are left out of every ranking. 14 of the 789 that pass get no estimate because the model needs an investor score; 14 are resort records with no value or supply-risk subscore (WealthyBud data · 940 metros · Realtor.com listings and WealthyBud scores · September 2026).
Which metros have the strongest outlook?
Indiana, PA has the strongest WealthyBud model estimate at +7.2%, then Sterling, IL (+6.8%) and Williamsport, PA (+6.6%). This is a model estimate, not a prediction, across 775 metros with 100 or more listings. Among the top 10, all have fewer than 500 listings, so treat the order as tentative.
5. Indiana, PA leads the WealthyBud model estimates at +7.2%
Tied places share a rank. The median active-listing count in the top 10 is 134, against 382 for all 775 metros; Pennsylvania holds 3 of the 10 places (WealthyBud data · 775 metros · Realtor.com listings and WealthyBud scores · September 2026).
| Metro | WealthyBud model estimate | Label | Active listings | Current median list price, year over year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Indiana, PA | +7.2% | Rising | 123 | +13.5% |
| 2. Sterling, IL | +6.8% | Rising | 116 | +14.3% |
| 3. Williamsport, PA | +6.6% | Rising | 169 | +0.6% |
| 4=. Carbondale, IL | +6.5% | Rising | 144 | +74.4% |
| 4=. Charleston, WV | +6.5% | Rising | 416 | +20.6% |
| 4=. Hutchinson, KS | +6.5% | Rising | 111 | +3.0% |
| 7. Monroe, LA | +6.4% | Rising | 356 | +9.0% |
| 8=. Hermitage, PA | +6.2% | Rising | 275 | +17.7% |
| 8=. Pittsburg, KS | +6.2% | Rising | 106 | −2.7% |
| 10. Blytheville, AR | +6.1% | Rising | 118 | +0.5% |
Put any two metros' outlooks side by side
Which metros have the weakest outlook?
Sevierville, TN has the weakest WealthyBud model estimate at −6.8%, followed by Ellensburg, WA (−6.2%) and Ruidoso, NM (−5.9%). These are model estimates, not predictions, among 775 metros with 100 or more listings. Among the weakest 10, 5 have fewer than 500 listings.
6. Sevierville, TN is lowest at −6.8%
Tied places share a rank. The weakest 10 have a median of 538 active listings, and Georgia holds 2 of the 10 places (WealthyBud data · 775 metros · Realtor.com listings and WealthyBud scores · September 2026).
7. The weakest 10 have a median supply-risk score of 90 and momentum of 32
The strongest 10 have 5 and 76. Weak estimates reflect rebuilt inventory and soft momentum under the model's weights, not a statement that prices will fall (WealthyBud data · 10 metros · Realtor.com listings and WealthyBud scores · September 2026).
What do industry forecasters expect?
Published national forecasts call for modest gains. Fannie Mae's September 11, 2026 forecast is 2.3% for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027 on its own price index, Q4 over Q4. NAR projects a 4% rise in the 2026 median price. The measures and dates differ, so the numbers are listed, not ranked.
8. Fannie Mae ESR: Fannie Mae HPI up 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027 (Q4/Q4), published September 11, 2026
The September 2026 Housing Forecast lists the Fannie Mae HPI under “Percent Change: Quarterly YoY, Annual Q4/Q4”: 2.1 for 2025, 2.3 for 2026 and 1.0 for 2027. The report says the HPI forecast is updated each January, April, July and October.
9. Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey, Q3 2026: 2.5% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027, 2.7% for 2028
The HPES page labels these “Panelist Average Annual Home Price Growth Expectations”; the survey is produced with Pulsenomics. They are expert opinions averaged across a panel.
10. NAR: median home price up 4% in 2026, per its June 16, 2026 forecast
NAR says its current forecast “calls for existing-home sales to rise 4% this year, with the median home price also climbing 4%.” A median price reflects the mix of homes sold.
- Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research group forecasts its Home Price Index at 2.3% for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027, Q4 over Q4 (September 11, 2026).
- Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey, a poll of more than 100 housing experts, averages 2.5% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027 and 2.7% for 2028 (Q3 2026 edition).
- NAR's forecast of June 16, 2026 has the 2026 median home price up 4%.
Industry forecasts are national and use their own measures and horizons, so they are not directly comparable to the WealthyBud metro outlook. MBA and Freddie Mac house-price forecasts were not verifiable from public pages and are left out. For realized price changes, see home price appreciation statistics.
How is the WealthyBud outlook calculated?
The WealthyBud outlook is a model estimate, not a prediction. For each metro it centers three percentile subscores, weights momentum 50%, supply risk 30% (inverted) and value 20%, multiplies the blend by 10, and caps the result at ±10%. Rising starts at +2.0% and Cooling at −2.0%.
11. Formula: outlook = clamp(10 × (0.5 × momentum_z + 0.3 × inverted_supply_z + 0.2 × value_z), −10, +10)
Each z-score is (subscore − 50) / 50, from −1 to +1; supply risk uses (50 − subscore) / 50. Weights are renormalized if a subscore is missing, which affects none of the 775 metros ranked here. The result is rounded to one decimal; the subscores it uses are whole numbers.
12. Labels: Rising at +2.0% or higher, Cooling at −2.0% or lower, otherwise Flat
The cut-offs are fixed numbers set by WealthyBud. The label is set on the unrounded value, so a metro displayed at exactly +2.0% or −2.0% can carry the other label; that applies to 1 ranked metro.
13. Inputs: six momentum measures, one supply measure, one or two value measures
Momentum averages percentile ranks of listing-price change (year over year and month over month), days-on-market change, inventory change and price-reduced share from Realtor.com, plus BLS jobs growth where available. Supply risk is active listings divided by the same month in 2019. Value scores how far FHFA's house price index sits above the metro's own 2000-2019 log-linear trend (closer to or below trend scores higher), with price-to-income added where Census income exists. See the methodology.
14. What the model does not use: mortgage rates, the national economy, rental yield, sales heat or any back-test
It has no mortgage-rate, construction or macro inputs beyond the jobs term in momentum, and WealthyBud's yield and heat subscores are excluded. The model has never been back-tested on this site: no comparison of past outlooks with later price changes exists, so there is no track record and no error range.
How reliable are home price forecasts?
Forecasts are uncertain, and they change. Fannie Mae cut its own 2026 Q4-over-Q4 HPI forecast from 3.2% in its June 10, 2026 edition to 2.3% on September 11. This page does not measure forecast accuracy, and the WealthyBud model estimate has not been back-tested, so no error rate is given.
15. Fannie Mae lowered its 2026 HPI forecast from 3.2% to 2.3% in three months
Its June 2026 Housing Forecast (dated June 10) showed 3.2% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027; the September edition shows 2.3% and 1.0%. The same editions put 2025 at 2.5% and 2.1%, so even a completed year was revised.
16. Fannie Mae's own disclaimer: changed assumptions “could produce materially different results”
The September forecast states that “Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results.” That caution applies to the WealthyBud outlook too, which has fewer inputs than a national economic model.
What this means for buyers, sellers and investors
For buyers, a Cooling label is a prompt to look at inventory and price cuts in that metro, not a signal that prices will fall. See price reduction statistics before you negotiate.
For sellers, national forecasts of 2.3% to 4% for 2026 describe different measures, so use recent comparable sales and local supply in housing inventory statistics to set your price.
For investors, use the WealthyBud model estimate as one screening input beside rents, taxes and financing costs. The momentum dashboard shows the inputs behind it.
More Real Estate statistics
Home Price Appreciation Statistics (2026)
How fast U.S. home prices have grown over one, five and ten years across hundreds of metros, from FHFA and listing data.
View ResearchPrice Reduction Statistics (2026)
The share of home listings with price cuts across U.S. metros in 2026, where reductions are most common, and what they signal.
View ResearchHousing Inventory Statistics (2026)
Active and new listings across U.S. metros, how inventory compares with 2019 and where supply is rising fastest.
View HubAll U.S. Housing Markets
950 metros scored, mapped and forecast from public data.
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