Statistics · 2026 · Stocks
Buffett Indicator Statistics (2026)
The Buffett indicator stood at 255.0% in 2026 Q2, the highest of 303 quarters since 1947 Q4. It divides the market value of nonfinancial corporate equities ($83.05 trillion, Federal Reserve) by nominal GDP ($32.56 trillion at an annual rate, BEA). The average is 86.6%. This page describes history and does not forecast.
Key takeaways
- The ratio was 255.0% in 2026 Q2, versus a 1947 Q4–2026 Q2 average of 86.6% and median of 72.1%.
- 2026 Q2 is the highest of 303 quarters: 100% of quarters were at or below it.
- The lowest reading was 32.2% in 1982 Q2; the high before 2020 was 162.6% in 2000 Q1.
- After the 11 top-decile quarters with a full 5-year window (from 5 overlapping runs), real returns had mean 5.9% vs 7.4% (lower), median 9.2% vs 8.3% (higher). The answer depends on the statistic.
What is the Buffett indicator today?
The Buffett indicator was 255.0% in 2026 Q2: nonfinancial corporate equities worth $83.05 trillion against nominal GDP of $32.56 trillion at an annual rate. That is the highest reading in 303 quarters since 1947 Q4, and 2.9 times the 86.6% average. The numerator is a Federal Reserve proxy, not total stock market value.
How the ratio is built. The numerator is the Federal Reserve’s corporate equities line for the nonfinancial corporate business sector, listed under “Total equity (market value),” from the Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1, table S11.1.b, line 45). It is a common proxy for U.S. stock market value, not the total. The denominator is nominal GDP at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The ratio exists only for quarters present in both series: 303 quarters from 1947 Q4 to 2026 Q2. The equity series has fourth-quarter points only through 1951 Q4 (5 points), then one per quarter from 1952 Q1. “Percentile” here means the share of those quarters at or below a given reading.
1. Corporate equities of $83.05 trillion against GDP of $32.56 trillion give 255.0%
The Fed’s Z.1 release of September 11, 2026 lists line 45, “Corporate equities,” at 83,050.8 billion dollars for 2026:Q2. GDP is the quarter’s annual-rate figure from FRED, built on BEA estimates. The ratio is WealthyBud’s calculation (WealthyBud data · 303 quarters · 2026 Q2).
2. 2026 Q2 is at the 100th percentile: no earlier quarter was higher
The median quarter reads 72.1%; today is 168.4 percentage points above the 86.6% mean (WealthyBud data · 303 quarters · 2026 Q2).
3. In one quarter equities rose 18.6% while nominal GDP rose 2.1%
From 2026 Q1 to 2026 Q2 the ratio moved from 219.5% to 255.0%. BEA’s third estimate, released September 30, 2026, puts current-dollar GDP growth at 8.5 percent at an annual rate, which matches the quarterly change here (2.1%, or 8.5% annualized). (WealthyBud data · 2 quarters · 2026 Q2).
4. A year earlier the ratio was 213.3%; it has risen 41.7 points since
2025 Q2 to 2026 Q2 spans four quarters (WealthyBud data · 303 quarters · 2026 Q2).
WealthyBud’s stock market statistics page cites a different reading, 219% on March 31, 2026, from currentmarketvaluation.com’s total-market-value model. This page uses the Fed’s nonfinancial-corporate numerator (219.5% for 2026 Q1, 255.0% for 2026 Q2), so the figures are not directly comparable.
How has the Buffett indicator changed since 1947?
The ratio began at 36.6% in 1947 Q4 and has risen unevenly. The 1940s averaged 36.2%, the lowest decade, and the 2020s average 194.2%, the highest, with the 2020s still in progress. The ratio first reached 100% in 1997 Q2; the equity series is annual before 1952 Q1.
5. Decade averages run from 36.2% (1940s) to 194.2% (2020s)
The 2010s averaged 127.7%, the highest decade before the 2020s. The 1940s hold only 3 annual observations, and the 2020s only 26 quarters so far (WealthyBud data · 303 quarters · 2026 Q2).
6. 100 of 303 quarters (33.0%) were at or above 100%
The first was 1997 Q2; 12 quarters (4.0%) reached 200%, starting 2021 Q1. Every reading at or above 200% falls in the 2020s (WealthyBud data · 303 quarters · 2026 Q2).
| Decade | Quarters (n) | Average | Highest (quarter) | Lowest (quarter) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1940s | 3 | 36.2% | 38.4% (1949 Q4) | 33.6% (1948 Q4) |
| 1950s | 34 | 51.2% | 68.5% (1959 Q4) | 33.0% (1953 Q3) |
| 1960s | 40 | 72.8% | 87.1% (1968 Q4) | 54.4% (1962 Q2) |
| 1970s | 40 | 50.9% | 77.7% (1972 Q4) | 34.6% (1978 Q4) |
| 1980s | 40 | 44.0% | 60.3% (1987 Q3) | 32.2% (1982 Q2) |
| 1990s | 40 | 82.5% | 155.4% (1999 Q4) | 44.1% (1990 Q3) |
| 2000s | 40 | 106.0% | 162.6% (2000 Q1) | 69.0% (2009 Q1) |
| 2010s | 40 | 127.7% | 159.9% (2019 Q4) | 85.3% (2010 Q2) |
| 2020s | 26 | 194.2% | 255.0% (2026 Q2) | 128.8% (2020 Q1) |
When was the Buffett indicator highest and lowest?
The highest reading is 255.0% in 2026 Q2, the latest quarter. The lowest is 32.2% in 1982 Q2, which makes the peak 7.9 times the trough. Before 2020 the record was 162.6% in 2000 Q1. Both extremes are computed from the 303 matching quarters.
7. High: 255.0% in 2026 Q2. Low: 32.2% in 1982 Q2
The gap is 222.8 percentage points. The lowest quarter ends the deepest decline of 25% or more, described below (WealthyBud data · 303 quarters · 2026 Q2).
8. The pre-2020 high was 162.6% in 2000 Q1; today is 92.4 points above it
That earlier peak is the highest reading between 1947 Q4 and 2019 Q4. From 2000 Q1 the ratio fell 57.6% to 69.0% by 2009 Q1 (WealthyBud data · 303 quarters · 2026 Q2).
9. The deepest fall of 25% or more was 63%: 1968 Q4 to 1982 Q2
The ratio fell from 87.1% to 32.2% (WealthyBud data · 303 quarters · 2026 Q2).
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How does the Buffett indicator compare with the Shiller CAPE?
Both gauges are high. The Buffett indicator sits at the 100th percentile of 303 quarters, and the Shiller CAPE (38.15) at the 96th percentile of the same quarter-start months. Their correlation across those quarters is 0.88. The highest CAPE among these quarter-start months is 43.83 (1999 Q3).
CAPE values are monthly averages from Robert Shiller’s data as republished by multpl.com, taken for the first month of each quarter (2026 Q2 uses April 2026). The equity series is an end-of-quarter level, so the dates differ slightly.
10. The two series correlate at 0.88 across 303 quarters
Both series trend upward and neighboring quarters are alike, so this Pearson correlation overstates how much independent evidence exists (WealthyBud data · 303 quarters · 2026 Q2).
11. 18 of the 31 top-decile Buffett quarters were also top-decile CAPE quarters
Top decile means the 31 highest readings of each series: ratio at or above 152.4%, CAPE at or above 32.63. The highest CAPE among the quarter-start months used here, 43.83 in 1999 Q3, came when the ratio was 131.1%; the full-series record is 44.19 in December 1999 (WealthyBud data · 303 quarters · 2026 Q2).
What does the Buffett indicator leave out?
The indicator compares two different things. The numerator is the market value of nonfinancial corporations’ equity, public and private, and excludes financial firms. The denominator is GDP, the value of final goods and services produced in the United States. Interest rates and profit margins are not inputs to either, so the ratio is only a rough gauge.
12. The numerator covers public and private nonfinancial corporations only
The Fed says the sector “consists of both publicly traded and privately owned nonfinancial corporations” (Z.1, September 11, 2026). Financial firms are excluded.
13. The two series are measured differently in time
The Fed reports stocks “as of the end of each calendar quarter.” BEA defines GDP as “the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States,” here at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. One is a point-in-time level; the other is a flow.
14. Buffett called the ratio “probably the best single measure,” with limits
In a December 10, 2001 Fortune essay with Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett wrote: “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” His chart used all publicly traded securities against GNP, a different measure.
Rates matter too; see interest rates and stocks.
What happened after past Buffett indicator peaks?
11 top-decile quarters, from 5 overlapping runs, have a full five-year window. Their real S&P Composite total return had a mean of 5.9% a year (lower than the 7.4% for all 283 quarters) and a median of 9.2% (higher than 8.3%). The answer depends on the statistic. The sample is small and overlapping. This is an association, not a forecast.
Return basis: Shiller monthly-average S&P Composite prices plus reinvested dividends, deflated by CPI, from the quarter-start month to the same month five years later. Top decile means ratio at or above 152.4%, the 31 highest of 303 quarters. Neighboring windows share 59 of 60 months.
15. Top-decile quarters: 5.9% a year real (mean), 9.2% (median), n = 11
All quarters with a window (283, 1947 Q4 to 2021 Q2): mean 7.4%, median 8.3%. The top-decile median is higher and the mean lower (WealthyBud data · 283 quarters · 2026 Q2).
16. 3 of 11 top-decile windows lost money in real terms, against 62 of 283 overall
That is 27% versus 22%. The 20 newest quarters have no five-year result yet, including 20 of the 31 top-decile quarters (WealthyBud data · 283 quarters · 2026 Q2).
17. The 11 windows come from only 5 separate runs, so the true sample is small
Runs with results sit as few as 1 quarter apart, so windows overlap. A few episodes drive any average; this page makes no causal claim (WealthyBud data · 11 quarters · 2026 Q2).
- 1999 Q4 to 2000 Q2 (peak 162.6%): 3 complete five-year windows, real return −5.4% to −4.0% a year.
- 2018 Q3 (peak 156.5%): 1 complete five-year window, real return 7.7% a year.
- 2019 Q2 (peak 152.5%): 1 complete five-year window, real return 9.2% a year.
- 2019 Q4 (peak 159.9%): 1 complete five-year window, real return 11.4% a year.
- 2020 Q2 to 2026 Q2 (peak 255.0%): 5 complete five-year windows, real return 7.6% to 11.2% a year; the other 20 quarters have no full window yet.
What this means for investors
Treat it as context, not a timer. At 255.0% the ratio is the highest on record, yet the 11 top-decile windows with results (from 5 runs) had mean 5.9% vs 7.4% (lower), median 9.2% vs 8.3% (higher). The answer depends on the statistic. Of those windows, 3 lost money and 8 gained.
Know what it measures. The Fed series includes private nonfinancial corporations; a fund such as VTI holds listed stocks only.
Pair it with other gauges. The Shiller CAPE ratio compares prices with 10-year average earnings, not GDP. See stock market statistics and the stocks hub.
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